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Original-Research: UBM Development AG - from NuWays AG

30.08.2024 / 09:01 CET/CEST

Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS

Group AG.

The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The

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invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.

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Classification of NuWays AG to UBM Development AG

Company Name: UBM Development AG

ISIN: AT0000815402

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: Buy

from: 30.08.2024

Target price: EUR 27.00

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Philipp Sennewald

Improved total output + residential recovery in sight, chg.

UBM released Q2 results, showing a steep increase in total output thanks to

several disposals but still weak operating performance due to the ongoing

standstill on the real estate transaction market.

Total output in Q2, which in addition to sales also refers to pro-rata sales

of companies consolidated at-equity

as well as proceeds from share deals, increased by 161% yoy to EUR 164.1m,

which was especially driven by the partial sale of the LeopoldQuartier

Office project (30% stake) to a project partner. Further drivers were the

disposals of the W3 - Center Wien Mitte to the co-owner as well as the

office building Polezcki Madrid to a tenant. Notably, all deals were

concluded at book value. Total net cash inflows from the transaction amount

to EUR 75m in H1 (eNuW: EUR 50m in Q2), leading to a comfortable cash position

of EUR 179m (FY '23: EUR 152m).

Yet, Q2 sales, which only recognize signed project sales on a PoC base, only

increased slightly by 13% yoy to EUR 22.5m (eNuW: EUR 24.9m) against a weak

comparable base. The most significant sales contributions came from the

construction progress on residential projects in Germany and the Czech

Republic as well as forward sales in Austria. Yet, early indicators for a

revival of the residential market were visible, as UBM sold a total of 97

units in H1, which is already exceeding the FY '23 amount (96). On a

positive note, Q2 EBITDA improved yoy to EUR 1m (eNuW: EUR -1.2m), which is

mainly to the absence of negative fair value adjustments of the property

portfolio. Moreover, cost for personnel reduced by 20% yoy following reduced

head count.

As it remains uncertain, when the real estate market will reopen again, we

still expect positive newsflow form UBM in the coming quarters. For

instance, the company recently sent out the teaser for the Timber Pioneer

project and so far attracted dozens of interested buyers for Frankfurt's

first hybrid-timber office building. While a disposal in H2 appears not

likely due to the shortage of time, we estimate a closing in H1 '25e to be

realistic. Furthermore, we expect the recovery in residential to accelerate

going forward, driven by the increasing supply/demand imbalance. In

office/light-industrial we further anticipate positive impacts from

Germany's "GebäudetypE" draft law, which is seen to simplify planning

processes (i.e. more flexibility on room height, less radiators, etc.) and

thus reduce total construction costs.

The shares remains a BUY with an unchanged PT of EUR 27 based on DDM.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/30675.pdf

For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss

bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach

§ 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der

vollständigen Analyse.

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1978161 30.08.2024 CET/CEST

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