^
Original-Research: UBM Development AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to UBM Development AG
Company Name: UBM Development AG
ISIN: AT0000815402
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 15.03.2024
Target price: 28.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
FY '23 prelims: EBT below est. due to higher devaluation / chg.
UBM released preliminary FY '23 figures, which came in below our estimates
following higher than anticipated devaluations of the company's development
as well as standing asset portfolio. Management now expects an EBT loss of
EUR 39m (vs eNuW of EUR -23.6m vs eCons EUR -21.4m). Final FY figures will be
released on April 11th.
Overall, UBM had to write down EUR 70m throughout 2023, which should have
been divided equally into project and standing asset revaluations. The main
reason for this is seen to be the ongoing weakness of the real estate
market, with only slight gradual increases in transaction volumes and ever
more larger players filing for bankruptcy (e.g. Signa). Although management
indicated that technical pressure for further devaluations in 2024e should
be limited, we conservatively estimate a slight devaluation of c. 1%.
Despite the devaluation and the redemption of its hybrid bond, UBM
continues to provide sound balance
sheet metrics with a cash position of EUR 152m and an equity ratio which
remains in the target corridor
of 30-35%. Importantly, the company has no major maturities until November
2025 (EUR 120m corporate
bond), which marks a major competitive advantage as it provides management
with sufficient headroom
until the market regains traction.
On another positive note, the company was able to divest its 33.5% share of
Palais Hansen to Wiener Städtische in Q4. Given a fair value of EUR 100m, a
7% discount to book value and an LTV of 45% this should have resulted in
net cash inflows of c. EUR 17m (eNuW). Moreover, a 25% in the Vienna-based
project "Central Hub", a mix between office and light industrial, was
acquired. The 9,800m sqm project is set to be completed in Q1 '25.
Overall and despite the muted FY 2023 preliminary figures, we continue to
like UBM as we regard the company as well equipped to cope with the current
macroeconomic headwinds, as earnings from the EUR 2.3bn pipeline should
protect profitability going forward (eNuW: 10-15% developer margin).
Moreover, with 75% of the pipeline being planned in hybrid-timber
construction, the company is in a perfect position to benefit from the
increasing pressure for investors to comply with the EU taxonomy. Hence,
demand for projects should further increase going forward.
We reiterate our BUY recommendation with a new PT of EUR 28.00 based on DDM.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29169.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++
-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
°
