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Original-Research: MLP SE - from NuWays AG
15.11.2024 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group AG.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an
invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
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Classification of NuWays AG to MLP SE
Company Name: MLP SE
ISIN: DE0006569908
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Buy
from: 15.11.2024
Target price: EUR 12.00
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch
Q3 in line, guidance at top end or above achievable
Q3 sales increased by 19% yoy to EUR 245m (eNuW: EUR 242m; 9M: EUR 746m, +12%
yoy), driven by a EUR 17m sales effect of performance fees (vs. Q3'23: EUR 0.1m)
but also a solid underlying development (sales ex performance +11% yoy). The
competence field Wealth drove sales by 36% yoy to EUR 140m (eNuW: EUR 128m; EUR
123m sales ex performance fees, up 19% yoy), whereas Life & Health sales
also increased by 2% yoy to EUR 68m (eNuW: EUR 70m) followed by P&C sales of EUR
35m, up 2% yoy (eNuW: EUR 35m). Noteworthy, the RE business saw a two-faced
development, where RE brokerage rose by 191% yoy and 17% qoq to EUR 10m (eNuW:
EUR 8m) but RE development remained nonexistent at EUR 0m sales (eNuW: EUR 1m).
EBIT expanded sharply by 128% yoy to EUR 17.8m (eNuW: EUR 18.2m), benefiting
from a EUR 11m performance fee EBIT contribution (eNuW; c. 65% incremental
margin). On the other hand, underlying profitability (EBIT ex perf. fee
effect) decreased by 13% yoy due to higher OPEX (+15% yoy).
Guidance confirmed: FY'24 guidance (EBIT: EUR 85-95m) confirmed: Based on a EUR
66m EBIT per 9M, the guidance implies a Q4 EBIT in the range of EUR 19-29m
(eNuW: EUR 28m, not including significant performance fees). This also
compares well to previous periods' EBIT of EUR 23m (Q4'22, no perf. fees) and
EUR 25m (Q4'23, no perf. fees), which were both burdened by goodwill
impairments in the RE segment (EUR 3m in Q4'22; EUR 4m in Q4'23). Consequently,
we are positioned at the top end of the guidance (eNuW: EUR 95m). Moreover,
should capital markets continue to perform well until Y/E'24e, performance
fees could be in the cards and the guidance could be overachieved. For next
year, MLP's midterm targets (EBIT EUR 100-110m; eNuW: EUR 102m) will become the
FY'25e guidance and new mid-term targets are to be published with FY'24
results in March '25.
Dividend increase after 3 years likely: Based on MLP's targeted pay-out
ratio of 50-70% (eNuW: 60%) and EPS estimate of EUR 0.64, the FY'24e dividend
should amount to EUR 0.36 per share, implying a 20% yoy increase and a current
yield of 6%. Mind you, that the dividend is tax free according to § 27 KStG.
All in all, MLP remains fully on track to achieve this and next year's
targets this year and should continue to show improvements going forward
thanks to its well diversified business model with a large share of
recurring revenues. Therefore, we keep MLP in our NuWays' Alpha List and
reiterate our BUY recommendation with unchanged PT of EUR 12.00, based on
FCFY'24e.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31331.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2030719 15.11.2024 CET/CEST
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