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Original-Research: MLP SE - from NuWays AG
15.08.2024 / 09:02 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group AG.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an
invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
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Classification of NuWays AG to MLP SE
Company Name: MLP SE
ISIN: DE0006569908
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 15.08.2024
Target price: EUR 11.50
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch
Solid Q2 driven by wealth management and banking
Topic: Following preliminary EBIT results from 29th July (see update from
30th July), MLP provided more details with final Q2 results yesterday.
Here's what's new:
* Solid sales figures: Total revenues grew by 8.5% yoy to EUR 230m (H1: EUR
514m, +8% yoy), especially driven by market tailwinds in Wealth
Mangement (+18% yoy; 39% of sales), Interest Income (+48% yoy; 10% of
sales) and Real Estate Brokerage (+128% yoy; 4% of sales), which have
offset the decline in Non-Life Insurance (-7% yoy; 15% of sales), while
Old-Age Provision (+1% yoy; 22% of sales) and Health Insurance (+5% yoy;
6% of sales) have remained stable.
* Non-life Insurance and Old-Age Provision temporarily muted: Albeit
demand for occupational pension schemes at MLP's institutional clients
has temporarily decreased due to investment restraints at SMEs,
management expects a rebound in the next quarters. The current weakness
in Non-Life Insurance stemmed from a discontinuation of lowmargin
contracts, which temporarily burdens the top-line but should ultimately
benefit the bottom-line going forward.
* EBIT mix driven by banking, brokerage and wealth management: H1's EBIT
showed a substantial improvement over H1'23 (+30% yoy to EUR 48.7m). Here,
the main expansion drivers were similar to sales with banking (+30%
yoy), brokerage (+229% yoy) and wealth management (+47% yoy). Especially
the net interest income of EUR 28m (+26% yoy) in banking as well as
performance fees of EUR 9.2m (+362% yoy) in wealth management conbtributed
significantly to profitability and made up c. 76% of H1 EBIT. On the
other hand, in RE development (i.e. Deutschland.Immobilien) H1 EBIT
worsened to EUR -9m (vs. EUR 3m in H1'23) due to the near fullstop of
projects.-
* Real estate rebound ahead: While RE brokerage already saw a strong jump
from low levels (Q2 sales +128% yoy and 176% qoq), RE development should
have reached its low now and follow brokerage going foward. Here
management expects a steady rise in sales in the next quarters, which
should lead to a less negative EBIT in H2'24e and even a positive EBIT
in FY'25e.
* Improved KPIs on all fronts: Next to record sales and EBIT figures, MLP
posted record AuMs of EUR 60.5bn (+7% yoy), a record non-life insurance
volume of EUR 729m (+7% yoy) and a strong net liquidity of EUR 220m (vs. EUR
191m per Y/E'23), the latter explaining 35% of its market cap. -
All in all a solid release, showing that MLP is on track to outperform its
guidance. By simply assuming last year's H2 EBIT (EUR 37.2m excl. one-offs)
for H2'24e, FY'24e EBIT would stand at EUR 86m, already above the specified
guidance of EUR 80-85m. Furthermore, we expect EBIT to come in at EUR 90m, based
on (1) a still strong net interest income, (2) higher AuMs and (3) less
negative impacts from RE development expected for H2.
In our view, MLP shares remain highly attractive, trading at 16% adj. FCF
yield, a 5.6% dividend yield and only on 5.3x EV/EBIT for FY'24e, while also
being a well diversified and stable quality business. Therefore, we
reiterate our BUY recommendation and MLP's position in our NuWays' AlphaList
with an unchanged PT of EUR 11.50, based on FCFY'24e and SOTP
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/30493.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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1968439 15.08.2024 CET/CEST
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