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Original-Research: Flughafen Wien AG - from NuWays AG
09.10.2024 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group AG.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an
invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
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Classification of NuWays AG to Flughafen Wien AG
Company Name: Flughafen Wien AG
ISIN: AT00000VIE62
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Hold
from: 09.10.2024
Target price: EUR 59.00
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch
Conference Feedback: Building up cash until decision day
Last week, we hosted FWAG European MidCap Conference in Paris with some
insightful meetings. As neither an airport nor the city of Vienna needs much
explanation, discussions quickly turned towards current and future CAPEX
projects, the shareholder structure and FWAG's capital allocation. Here are
our key takeaways:
Decision for 3rd runway until 2026e: Next to the current CAPEX project
(Terminal 3 South Expansion, eNuW: EUR 425m total CAPEX until FY'27e), the
decision to plan a third runway by 2033 is still pending. However, a final
decision is to be made by FWAG until FY'26e and should resolve the current
uncertainty. While the CAPEX volume for the third runway is to early to tell
and undisclosed, it should nevertheless should go into the billions (eNuW: EUR
1.5-3bn). Until then, FWAG should resume its current dividend policy and
stores its excess cash in time deposits.
Positive decision: In the event of a positive decision, we expect the
building process to start shortly after which will kick off a large CAPEX
cycle with muted FCFs. Although FWAG operates debt free with a EUR 349m cash
pile (per H1'24 and eNuW: EUR 600-750m by Y/E'27e), additional financing to
stem the project would become necessary, in our view. Here, either a capital
increase via the stock exchange or a debt intake to of up to 2-3x EBITDA
(current peer group's average) or a combination are thinkable.
Negative decision: in this case, the third runway would not be built for at
least one or two generations, meaning that FWAG could improve its capital
structure and put the excess cash to good use in the form of special
dividends, share buybacks and M&A.
In both ways, the final decision should serve as a pivotal moment, defining
the future of the airport operator, in our view. Towards which decision
management will eventually go for remains unforeseeable for us.
In another topic, the discussions turned towards the current shareholder
structure, with only 6% of free float and IFM holding 44%. Here, decisions
of IFM to potentially increase, reduce or maintain its current shareholding
are all viable options, but also unforeseeable from the outside.
For the time being, FWAG remains a HOLD with an unchanged PTof EUR 59.00,
based on DCF.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31015.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2004655 09.10.2024 CET/CEST
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