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Original-Research: ELARIS AG - from GBC AG
Classification of GBC AG to ELARIS AG
Company Name: ELARIS AG
ISIN: DE000A37FT17
Reason for the research: Research study (IPO study)
Target price: 47.55 EUR
Last rating change:
Analyst: Marcel Goldmann, Cosmin Filker
Electrification of German/European volume segments through direct sales and
digitally-supported partner network sales of fully electric cars; Marketing
of pure electric cars under the German ELARIS brand combined with a
full-service offering with a focus on private and corporate customers; The
increased expansion of the e-mobility business via a highly scalable
digital sales and service platform opens up considerable growth and
earnings potential; Fair value per share: EUR 47.55
ELARIS AG (ELARIS) is a German company and a provider of fully electric
e-vehicles and related business areas (spare parts and service business,
e-charging station business, etc.) in the up-and-coming and fast-growing
e-mobility sector. As a result of the transport and mobility transition
initiated in the EU as a whole and in Germany specifically, which includes
an EU ban on combustion engines from 2035, automotive experts expect that
future individual mobility will be strongly characterised by
battery-powered electric cars so that Germany and the EU can achieve their
environmental and climate policy goals (keyword: long-term climate
neutrality). As part of its political orientation, the current coalition is
aiming for 15 million electric vehicles on German roads by 2030. According
to the Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA), 524,219 electric cars were
registered in 2023, a significant increase of 11.4% compared to the
previous year (470,559) and a new record. At the same time, the share of
electric cars in total registrations increased to 18.4% (previous year:
17.7%).
The ELARIS Group continued its growth trajectory in the 2022 financial year
with a significant increase in sales of 241.6% to EUR 3.04 million (PY: EUR
0.89 million). The company was also able to continue this clearly positive
sales trend in the first ten months of the 2023 financial year, generating
sales of EUR 9.39 million (31 October 2022: EUR 2.29 million). The sales growth
achieved was primarily due to a significant increase in the sales volume of
e-cars.
At the operating result level (EBITDA), a negative result of EUR -3.14
million was achieved in the 2022 financial year due to high investments in
the development and expansion of the e-mobility business, which was
therefore below the PY's level (PY: EUR -1.14 million). However, it should be
noted at this point that the previous year's result was influenced by
clearly positive extraordinary income (EUR 2.02 million). EBITDA of EUR -1.66
million was generated in the first ten months of the 2023 financial year
(31 October 2022: EUR -4.28 million).
We anticipate a massive acceleration in growth in future financial years.
The further expansion of the product portfolio and the sales and service
partner network as well as increased marketing measures should prove to be
the main growth drivers for this. Additional growth impetus should also
result from the development of complementary business areas (spare parts
and charging infrastructure business, etc.) and from the development of new
markets outside Germany, which we have not taken into account in our
conservative forecasts and which therefore open up (further) significant
upside and value enhancement potential.
For the past financial year 2023, we specifically expect a jump in sales
compared to the previous year to EUR 13.46 million (PY: EUR 3.04 million) and
an operating result (EBITDA) of EUR -3.81 million (PY: EUR -3.14 million). For
the coming years 2024 and 2025, we anticipate a massive increase in sales
(EBITDA) to EUR 130.26 million (EUR 10.78 million) in 2024e and EUR 256.69
million (EUR 30.57 million) in 2025e based on our expected dynamic
sales/growth development and the onset of economies of scale. For the
following year 2026, we anticipate a further increase in sales and EBITDA
to EUR 388.02 million and EUR 60.19 million respectively. At the same time, the
EBITDA margin should gradually increase significantly from the expected
8.3% in 2024 to 15.5% in 2026.
Overall, we believe that the ELARIS Group, with its attractive product
portfolio, extensive network of sales and service partners and disruptive
sales approach (combination of online sales and stationary sales), is well
positioned to benefit significantly from the further ramp-up of e-mobility
in the German automotive market. The company's ramp-up and highly scalable
business model should enable it to achieve disproportionately high earnings
growth and a sharp rise in profitability in parallel with the expected
dynamic sales growth.
As part of our DCF model, we have calculated a fair company value of EUR
47.55 per share at the end of the 2024 financial year based on our
estimates.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29187.pdf
Contact for questions
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,6a,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung
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Date and time of completion of the study: 12/03/2024(18:05 pm)
Date and time of first distribution: 12/03/2024(18:10 pm)
-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
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