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Original-Research: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA
Company Name: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA
ISIN: DE0005493092
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Kaufen
from: 17.04.2024
Target price: EUR 5.50
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
First semifinal since 11 years secures EUR 12.5m extra profit / chg.
By winning Tuesday night's match against Atletico Madrid, Borussia Dortmund
has secured a spot in the UEFA Champions League semifinals for the first
time since 2013. With this advancement, the club can now anticipate
additional UEFA prize money payments of at least EUR 12.5m. Consequently, we
anticipate an increase of the EBT and EBITDA guidance in the same amount.
Keep in mind that those premium payments have a de facto 100% margin, as no
costs are incurred. Moreover, this does not yet include sales from
ticketing and catering for the additional home game.
In the semifinals, BVB will face PSG with superstar Mbappe. Both teams met
already in the group stage, where PSG won their home game 2-0 followed by a
1-1 draw in Dortmund. We therefore attribute the outsider role to BVB for
the time being and do not model any income from a potential progression.
However, should Borussia Dortmund manage to reach the final, the club would
receive additional premium payments of EUR 15.5 million, while winning the
competition would add another EUR 4.5m along with at least EUR 3.5m for
participating in the UEFA Super Cup (UCL winner vs UEL winner).
Looking at the Bundesliga table, BVB is currently positioned in 5 th place.
With only 5 games to go, BVB finds themselves in a promising position to
secure qualification for the upcoming season's UEFA Champions League. A
direct duel with RB Leipzig for the 4 th spot in the final table and the
consequent UCL participation is looming, with a head-to-head encounter
scheduled for April 27th. Mind you, if Germany secures the second position
in the UEFA coefficient ranking, even the 5 th -placed team in the
Bundesliga would qualify for the Champions League. With their progression
in the current UCL campaign, BVB now can gather additional valuable points
for this ranking. (See update from January).
Lastly, the auction for domestic broadcasting rights for the 4-year period
starting with the season 2025/26 kicked off this week. While the current
4-year deal has a total value of EUR 4.4bn, fears were arising that the next
deal could decrease in volume after the Italian and French Leagues had to
cut back recently. However, the recent abortion of the
"NoSingle-Buyer-Rule" is set to intensify the bidding contest. Hence, we
expect the deal volume to remain on the same level as in the current
period.
Reiterate BUY with an unchanged PT of EUR 5.50 based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29439.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
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