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Original-Research: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA - from NuWays AG
02.09.2024 / 09:07 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group AG.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an
invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
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Classification of NuWays AG to Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA
Company Name: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA
ISIN: DE0005493092
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Buy
Target price: EUR 5.50
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
UCL draw: 2 spanish giants but overall feasible opponents
Topic: Last week Thursday, the draw for the league phase of the UEFA
Champions League (UCL) took place in Monaco. In the newly formatted UCL, BVB
will face last seasons final opponent Real Madrid (Away), FC Barcelona
(Home), Shakhtar Donetsk (H), Club Brugge (A), Celtic Glasgow (H), Dinamo
Zagreb (A), Sturm Graz (H) and Bologna FC (A). Here is our view.
While BVB is seen to be the clear underdog in the away game at Madrid, which
has further strengthened its squad during the summer by adding French
superstar Kylian Mbappé, and the home game against Barcelona to be a duel at
eye level, the other six opponents are expected to be weaker. Especially the
games against Graz, Zagreb, Donetsk, Brugge and Glasgow should result in
wins, as none of these teams provide even half of BVB's squad value
according to transfermarkt.de. On paper, the away game at Bologna could
serve as another challenge, but the Italian side lost some key figures from
last season with head coach Motta, striker Zirkzee and centre back
Calafiori. Conservatively estimating 15 points out of the 8 matches, BVB
could possibly make it directly into the round of 16, according to
simulations conducted by Football Meets Data.
Mind you, the UCL will be played under a new format this season with the
number of participants increasing from 32 to 36 ( Update on prize money
details). Moreover, there will be no groups anymore, instead all teams will
be ranked on one table. At the end of the league phase, the top 8 teams move
directly into the round of 16, while the teams ranked 9-24 will play out the
remaining participants in an intermediate round. In our model, we
conservatively expect BVB to reach the round of 16, every progress beyond
that is hence providing upside to our estimates.
Besides this, BVB had a sound start to the new Bundesliga season. After
winning the first game against a highly talented Frankfurt squad, BVB got
another point this weekend at Bremen thanks to a 0-0 draw.
Overall, the team should be equipped to land another top 4 spot at the end
of the season to qualify for the UCL again. Also, another deep run in the
UCL is possible, especially if the team manages to finish top 8 in the
league phase.
Reiterate BUY with an unchanged EUR 5.50 PT based on DCF.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/30679.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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1979085 02.09.2024 CET/CEST
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