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Original-Research: 123fahrschule SE - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to 123fahrschule SE
Company Name: 123fahrschule SE
ISIN: DE000A2P4HL9
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Buy
from: 05.03.2024
Target price: 7.20
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
FY '23: Strong growth and improved profitability; chg. est & PT
Last week, 123fahrschule published a sound set of FY '23 results. Total
sales increased by 24% yoy, coming in at EUR 20.6m (eNuW: EUR 20.2m; eCons: EUR
21.0m). In spite of a slight decrease in the number of private customer
registrations, sales growth was still driven by the Private Customers
segment, where sales grew by 16% yoy to EUR 15.6m (eNuW: EUR 15.9m). The
Professional Driver Education segment continued its strong growth momentum,
as sales were up 138% yoy to EUR 2.3m. Importantly, sales from the Driving
Instructor Training segment regained traction in Q4 (+106% yoy), as FY
sales came in at EUR 2.7m (+22% yoy; eNuW: EUR 2.2m), which was largely due to
efficiency gains.
FY EBITDA came in at EUR -0.8m (eNuW: EUR -0.7m; eCons: EUR -0.4m), which is
largely in line with expectations. After a neutral 9M EBITDA, the full-year
figure, once again, underpins the company's strong seasonality, which is
reflecting (1) a general reluctance of customers to take driving lessons
during Christmas season as well as (2) higher OpEx based on built-up
provisions for vacation accruals which are cumulated at YE. However, this
represents a substantial improvement compared to an EBITDA of EUR -2,7m in FY
'22. In our view, this shows the effectiveness of the cost-cutting measures
introduced in December 2022, whose implementation was fulfilled in 2023.
Going forward, the company looks set to remain on its growth path, as sales
are seen to grow by 13% yoy to EUR 23.2m in FY' 24e (eNuW; eCons: EUR 24.2m),
which should be driven by the Private Customer segment (+12% yoy) based on
increased capacity of driving instructor FTEs (+20% yoy at YE '24e). Yet,
we also expect a contribution from the Professional Driver Education
segment (+20% yoy), as an increased focus on corporate clients (i.e.
logistics, retail, agriculture) is seen to offset a possible negative
effect of the current government budget crisis on the awarding of education
vouchers.
Against this backdrop, EBITDA is seen to further improve to a neutral level
(eNuW; eCons: EUR 2.6m) before turning positive in FY '25e (eNuW: EUR 2.2m;
eCons: EUR 3.2m), which should be fuelled by the likely return of online
theory in 2025. In a CC scheduled for next Monday (register here),
management is going to provide more colour on this matter as well as on
possible legal changes regarding the use of simulators in driving schools.
The stock remains a BUY with a new PT of EUR 7.20 based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29067.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
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