VONOVIA WKN: A1ML7J ISIN: DE000A1ML7J1 Kürzel: VNA Forum: Aktien Thema: Hauptdiskussion

Wieso denn? Irgendwelche Zahlen die vielleicht oder auch nicht irgendwann zu einem unklaren Zeitpunkt erreicht werden könnten sind doch eine super Orientierungshilfe.

TAG hingegen hält sich super.

Der Gesamtmarkt hat mal einen schlechten Tag, das sagt ja nicht viel aus. Wenn Apple nicht so liefert wie erwartet, kann das auch nochmal reinhauen, weil die ja nun mal abartig hoch in jedem ETF gewichtet sind. Vonovia traue ich Freitag allerdings zu sich vom Gesamtmarkt aber zu entkoppeln, wäre nicht das erste mal.

Kursziele sind das sinnloseste was die Börse produziert.

Die Zahlen werden bestimmt positiv überraschen

Ich glaube nicht das wir nochmal unter die 20€ gehen

Auf 51,10€ haha. In welchem Jahr? 2030?

CITIGROUP senkt das Kursziel für VONOVIA von €70,60 auf €51,10. Buy.

Dafür dass der Dax fast 500 Punkte korrigiert hat, steht der Kurs noch gut da

Bald wackeln wieder die 20 Euro. Ich werde aber so oder mehrere Jahre halten.

Interessante Analyse und ich sehe ahnlich. Darum halte ich meine Positione bei Vonovia mindestens 3 Jahre aber eher langer.

Und die big boys werden nichts ausschließen wo sich gute Renditen erwirtschaften lassen. Das ist mal sicher.

Wenn die höheren Zinsen durch höhere Mietrenditen kompensiert werden und schließlich ein ordentlicher Cash-Flow für die Divi bleibt dann ist trotz Inflation alles möglich.

Risks As I pointed out earlier, a possible equity injection isn't a risk. After all, the assets currently have a NIY of 2.7% and generate a higher cash flow each year due to rent increases. Taking into account the discount to book value, the return on the assets is well above the required return on equity. But there are two risks I like to point out. Firstly, despite inflation cooling down, inflation might stay well above the ECBs target for longer than expected. This will put further pressure on the balance sheet as interest rates stay higher for longer than already anticipated. Secondly, the rise in interest rates shocked investors. This limits future growth by financing it with debt and investors demand a higher return for extra risk. Therefore, it is unlikely that the share will hit its all-time high in the coming years.

* Approximately because Vonovia successfully completed a tender offer for outstanding bonds. Vonovia has around €42 billion net debt that I like to categorize into the following three categories: 25% debt that will be paid with disposals and retained earnings (0% interest rate); 25% debt expiring in 2030 and beyond (1,5% interest rate). 50% new loans rolled over at higher rates (3% - 6% interest rate); Under the assumption Vonovia will refinance its debt with bank loans and bonds at an average 4.5% rate till 2030, I am not that worried about the liabilities. And note that it is unlikely that the interest cost will be 4.5% or higher. This would mean the ECB would barely cut rates after they stimulated consumers, companies and countries to take on record amounts of debt. Taking into account CapEx, dividends, and other costs at €1.5 billion, FFO around €1.8 billion, and disposals at €2 billion (excluding higher taxes), interest costs per year will increase by a maximum of €80 million per year. This is completely compensated by rent increases. But I would like to emphasize that FFO will decrease if Vonovia keeps succeeding with selling assets and interest rates don't drop. Therefore, I believe the management board shouldn't pay dividends under these market conditions.

As mentioned in the introduction, Vonovia is weighed down by its debt. Refinancing debts lowers FFO and adds risk to the business. But the crash to €15 was exaggerated, in my opinion. Vonovia was one of the better-performing stocks on the DAX 40, fuelled by the negative interest rates from the ECB. The ECB lowered its interest rates in response to the financial crisis in 2008 and lowered it even further after the European debt crisis. When debt is cheap, it increases the price of what it finances: real estate and stocks. The low rates made leveraging up on debt to increase profits very accessible. It also made you a genius if you did; hang yourself in debt at a 1.5% financing rate and make a small spread. Naturally, when interest rates rise, debt becomes too heavy. A share price of €15 is a 70% discount to book value, while the assets have a NIY of 2.7%. After all, you buy assets that yield 2.7% of the book value for 30% of the price. As my required return on equity is 7%, this should create alpha. Let's say one would buy Vonovia at €15 and one second later, Vonovia announces it will raise €10 equity per share. The investment of €25 generates €2.4 FFO per share (including lower interest costs) and a < 35% LTV and a further €11 billion worth of disposals of non-core assets. In this scenario, Vonovia wouldn't need to access the debt market until 2028.