VONOVIA WKN: A1ML7J ISIN: DE000A1ML7J1 Kürzel: VNA Forum: Aktien Thema: Hauptdiskussion

Outlook FFO will decrease if interest rates don't drop down again, but rent increases can compensate and keep FFO at a respectable level. The uncertainty where interest rates will be in the future, keeps affecting investors sentiment for real estate stocks. However, it is likely that interest rates will drop in 2024. Higher interest costs slowed down purchases and investments. However, consumers are still not saving their money since the compensation from banks is lower than the current inflation rate. The full effect of the rate hikes is yet to come. Vonovia will keep increasing its rent and as there is a housing shortage, the book value of the assets will increase again in the medium term. Since Vonovia is managing an enormous portfolio, a 1% increase in book value of assets will yield a non-cash income of €1 billion. Therefore, it is possible that Vonovia will make €5 billion profit in 2026 (current market capitalization is just over €15 billion). Depending on the share price, investors will push the management board to close the valuation gap between book value and market capitalization. For this reason, I think Vonovia is a long term no-brainer investment. However, even if interest rates would go into the negative territory again, investors are traumatized by the current rate hikes and will pay less attention to value the share price based on book value. This is nothing new in the real estate sector. Even when interest rates were negative, shopping malls had an enormous discount to book value. Thus, I will only value the future cash flows on Vonovia. If I take into account my assumptions: Future debt is financed at a 4.5% rate (on average); Impact of higher interest rates is limited due to rent increases and retained earnings; FFO will decline due to asset disposals; 2% growth rate for the perpetuity (significantly below the current rent increases). I come to the following discounted cash flow model: Spreadsheet Discounted cash flow model (Author's calculation) Even though those assumptions are already pessimistic in my opinion, Vonovia's share price is currently suggesting that the return on equity is around 10-11%. As I find an 8% or 9% return on equity would be more reasonable when I take into account pessimistic assumptions, my price target comes in a range of €26 - €30 ($29 - $33). As inflation will decrease further and Vonovia potentially makes more deals, the share price should move towards this target. If the assets will increase in value again, and they will someday, investors might also pay more attention to the valuation gap. In this scenario, my price target is above €40 ($44).

https://www.defenseworld.net/2023/07/28/vonovia-se-otcmktsvonoy-short-interest-up-575-0-in-july.html

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4622084-vonovia-stock-discount-to-book-value-offers-buying-opportunity

Wenn die Zahlen gut werden es wird schwer den Kurs zurückziehen.

Vor dem Q2 Bericht ziehen zurück und das gefallt mir. Wenn ich "Big Boy" ware würde ich auch vor der Steigerung zurückziehen.

Blödsinn. Noch viel Luft nach oben.

Noch viel Luft nach unten

https://www.msci.com/www/ipd-derivatives/msci-europe-quarterly-property/03207797441

Germany's struggling property sector in five charts: VONOVIA VS. THE DAX https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/germanys-struggling-property-sector-five-charts-2023-08-01/

Danke

Die Abstiegsangst des Vonovia-Chefs Rolf Buch https://www.wiwo.de/unternehmen/dienstleister/immobilienkrise-die-abstiegsangst-des-vonovia-chefs-rolf-buch/29152718.html

Bin neu an der Börse, inwiefern wird das auf den Kurs Auswirkungen haben? Ändern sich die Publikationspflichten? Soweit ich weiß, wird dadurch die Kapitalbeschaffung schwieriger, aber sonst. Vonovia muss doch nur Investmentgrade erhalten, um für Pensionskassen & Co., oder aber sonst?

Wie kommst du darauf das Vonovia aus dem Dax fliegt?

So wir haben August. Bleibt noch ein Monat bei Indexrauswurf im September für die Indexfonds. Wieso sollte ich als Fondsmanager also vorher kaufen?

Sowas belastet dann einen ganze abranche

Kann sein. Bin wohl nicht Experte genug um das Ausmaß für Vonovia zu verstehen 🤷‍♂️