PAYPAL WKN: A14R7U ISIN: US70450Y1038 Kürzel: PYPL Forum: Aktien Thema: Hauptdiskussion
https://simplywall.st/narratives/pypl-ecommerce-emerging-markets-and-security-will-drive-revenues-higher Decreasing Userbase Remains a Risk PayPal’s active user base has contracted for the third quarter in a row, remaining the main risk to the business. The number dropped from 435 million in Q4 22 to 428 million in Q3 23. A further negative development is the increased number of non-branded transactions (Braintree) compared to branded transactions that bring higher fees. All in all, these present some pretty noticeable risks to my narrative. In my narrative, I mentioned that a growing international presence will help support growth but declining users could offset any international gains Furthermore, increasing non-branded transactions that attract higher fees will work against one of the core premises of my narrative that profit margins will increase to 15% by 2028. I don’t think this has necessarily invalidated my narrative at this stage, it’s likely that macroeconomic conditions have caused a slight hiccup over the previous 12 months. I think both profitability and user growth will see some positive uplift in 2024, and I’m still believing that my assumptions will play out. New CEO and Short-Term Results The latest results showed $7.4 billion in revenues or an increase of 8% Y/Y. However, the company also reduced the headcount by 1,000 and experienced a decrease in margins. Thus, I attribute these short-term results to leaner operations. Alex Chriss, the new CEO, is still fresh on the job, so it is unrealistic to expect swift turnarounds from a company of this size. Still, he announced more cost tightening and profitability growth. I'm leaving my forecast as is for now, since the company just revamped its C-suite, and it will take some time to see meaningful results of such a big leadership change. E-commerce Tailwinds Persist According to the latest research by Boston Consulting Group, e-commerce is set to capture 41% of global retail sales by 2027, compared to 18% in 2017. The latest Black Friday shopping data shows almost $10b spent in online purchases, with 54% of online sales coming from mobile devices, compared to 44% in 2022. I think that these factors will offset any short-term difficulties, and I’m still standing by my assumed growth and profit margin figures.
Verstehe auch nicht wieso Amazon so ein Problem mit Paypal hat, will man krampfhaft sein eigenes Zahlungssystem durchbringen?. Gerade in den USA wo buy now pay later immer mehr Beliebtheit gewinnt (da man immer öfter knapp bei Kasse ist) schießt man sich doch selber ins Aus, da ich dann halt wo anders bestelle?
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