PAYPAL WKN: A14R7U ISIN: US70450Y1038 Kürzel: PYPL Forum: Aktien Thema: Hauptdiskussion
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https://simplywall.st/narratives/pypl-ecommerce-emerging-markets-and-security-will-drive-revenues-higher Decreasing Userbase Remains a Risk PayPal’s active user base has contracted for the third quarter in a row, remaining the main risk to the business. The number dropped from 435 million in Q4 22 to 428 million in Q3 23. A further negative development is the increased number of non-branded transactions (Braintree) compared to branded transactions that bring higher fees. All in all, these present some pretty noticeable risks to my narrative. In my narrative, I mentioned that a growing international presence will help support growth but declining users could offset any international gains Furthermore, increasing non-branded transactions that attract higher fees will work against one of the core premises of my narrative that profit margins will increase to 15% by 2028. I don’t think this has necessarily invalidated my narrative at this stage, it’s likely that macroeconomic conditions have caused a slight hiccup over the previous 12 months. I think both profitability and user growth will see some positive uplift in 2024, and I’m still believing that my assumptions will play out. New CEO and Short-Term Results The latest results showed $7.4 billion in revenues or an increase of 8% Y/Y. However, the company also reduced the headcount by 1,000 and experienced a decrease in margins. Thus, I attribute these short-term results to leaner operations. Alex Chriss, the new CEO, is still fresh on the job, so it is unrealistic to expect swift turnarounds from a company of this size. Still, he announced more cost tightening and profitability growth. I'm leaving my forecast as is for now, since the company just revamped its C-suite, and it will take some time to see meaningful results of such a big leadership change. E-commerce Tailwinds Persist According to the latest research by Boston Consulting Group, e-commerce is set to capture 41% of global retail sales by 2027, compared to 18% in 2017. The latest Black Friday shopping data shows almost $10b spent in online purchases, with 54% of online sales coming from mobile devices, compared to 44% in 2022. I think that these factors will offset any short-term difficulties, and I’m still standing by my assumed growth and profit margin figures.
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