LYNAS WKN: 871899 ISIN: AU000000LYC6 Kürzel: LYC Forum: Aktien Thema: Hauptdiskussion

Zu den Brics Staaten gehört China, Russland, Iran etc also nicht gerade die Staaten die dem Westen zu freundlich gesonnen sind. Das Lamp ist ja in Malaysia und Lynas der einzige westliche Seltenerd Lieferant von Größe. China hat ein Interesse das die Entkopplung nicht kommt. Die wollen nicht das der Westen unabhängiger ist. Könnte mir vorstellen, dass man es so Lynas schwerer macht oder sogar noch teuerer. Im Endeffekt kann es uns Wurst sein wem Lynas was teuer verkauft, aber China hat halt wohl was dagegen.

Warum siehst du da eher Nachteile? Klar würde sich China womöglich mehr "einbringen", aber es gäbe auch bessere Kontakte zu sehr rasch wachsenden Märkten. Natürlich sollte Lynas als australisches Unternehmen tendenziell eher für westliche Interessen und Lieferketten prädestiniert sein, aber da scheint ja ganz offenkundig wenig Interesse zu bestehen. Mir ist es also egal, wohin sie ihr Material dann verkaufen, so lange es den Kurs puscht.

Malaysia’s BRICS candidacy a strategic economic move, says Brazilian envoy https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2024/09/18/malaysias-brics-candidacy-a-strategic-economic-move-says-brazilian-envoy/ Das wäre weniger gut für Lynas

" “These market conditions have now destroyed most of the hoped-for projects from just a couple years back,” said James Litinsky, the CEO of MP Materials. " Das stärkt Lynas in der Zukunft absehbar. Nur eine Hand voll Spieler außerhalb Chinas können trotz dem Preisdruck ihre Produktion hochfahren, was heißt, dass Lynas wohl relativ dominant bleiben wird.

Danke für den interessanten Artikel! ☝🏻

Critical moment for China’s iron grip on rare earths https://thewest.com.au/business/mining/critical-moment-for-chinas-iron-grip-on-rare-earths-c-16081889?utm_campaign=share-icons&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&tid=1726572695862

Critical Materials Are In High Demand. What is DOD Doing to Secure the Supply Chain and Stockpile These Resources? For example, China mines nearly 70% of the global supply of rare earth elements. https://www.gao.gov/blog/critical-materials-are-high-demand.-what-dod-doing-secure-supply-chain-and-stockpile-these-resources?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=blogsm

Stark wie bei Lynas der Dip wieder gekauft wurde. Ich bin überrascht, dass der Markt Lynas Fortschritte belohnt, obwohl die Margen trotz Effizienzanstrengungen gering bleiben. Aber das ist natürlich ein noch besseres Zeichen für aufziehende Stürme in den China-Beziehungen.

https://www.aumanufacturing.com.au/is-australias-role-in-critical-supply-chains-as-ever-we-supply-materials-they-do-value-adding

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/interesting.7903365/page-405?direction=previous US national security adviser reveals new plan for Australia to help curb Chinese dominance Interessanter Artikel - nicht nur für Australien relevant

China warns Japan of retaliation for possible new chip curbs https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-warns-japan-retaliation-over-041010327.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAI8YCBFMOzWX14I7FycFjno2RBxkwHkI_lQ2cipXXoy4Ju0k9qQMwXhFvgcga-4rkBeG10W5oqtCDOvex2sH2K7gAN372FZs-RW9Ov-5kg4TF-_AKjdD8VwHlVcDS_kp6YhpWlwqRBN1lK9Nzcz-ikkFsU-ZqXhVMljdOponBA66 One specific fear in Japan, Toyota Motor Corp. (TM, 7203.T) privately told officials in Tokyo, is that Beijing could react to new semiconductor controls by cutting Japan’s access to critical minerals that are essential for automotive production The concern about Toyota has some historical precedent. In 2010, China temporarily suspended exports of rare earths to Japan after a clash in waters of the East China Sea claimed by both sides. The move shook Japan’s electronics sector and threatened to choke off global supplies of high-power magnets produced in Japan employing rare earths from China. Tokyo has since worked with mixed success to reduce its reliance on Chinese rare earth imports.

Posco chief discusses cooperation in rare earth minerals with Australia at joint meeting https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2024-09-02/business/industry/Posco-chief-discusses-cooperation-in-rare-earth-minerals-with-Australia-at-joint-meeting/2125919

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ndpr-price.5946726/page-43#post-75359936 Und Artikel vom Februar https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/rare-earths-prices-seen-rebounding-second-half-2024-analysts-2024-02-05/

Über HotCopper "The price in China of praseodymium oxide, one of the most widely used rare earth elements, fell 34% in 2023, while terbium oxide and neodymium oxide tumbled to their lowest levels since late 2020 last month, Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) data showed. However, further downside for rare earths is likely to be limited as prices, particularly for neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide, used in permanent magnets, fell 38% last year and are near the production cost level, said SMM analyst Yang Jiawen. "NdPr oxide is likely to see an 800-metric-ton deficit globally in 2024, flipping from last year's 6,600-ton surplus, Guolian Securities wrote last month. "We expect extra supply to be more or less cleared by end-2024, as demand catches up with supply through continually increasing electric vehicle sales and wind turbine production," said analyst Willis Thomas at CRU Group." All is going according to plan, lol. The increasing NEVs (BEVs plus PHEVs) and wind turbines are mostly being built in China at the moment and that ramping may not materialize in an orderly fashion. SO now all shorters have multiple catalysts to worry about. And while they were undoubtedly relieved to see the Apr REE price spike get turned away (drove some to frenzied short-selling I imagine), something similar is happening again now, and it is happening as multiple analysts thought likely. Another April-like REE price spike of 14% on top of the current moderated up-move could easily create a similar stock price up-move. All but a few shorters are currently underwater and current losses could easily get locked in as we approach 2025 when many things will come together for Lynas. Shorters need to buy back 100+ million shares where typical trading volume is just 3 million. The pressure is building. If they don't get any hopeful signs (REE or LYC stock price drop, significant renewed Chinese market concerns, etc), I am just going to become more hopeful.

Iluka is pressing for more government support for its ‘critical’ rare earths project Iluka Resources has warned its $1.8bn Eneabba mineral sands refinery, which it says is critical to national security, needs more government support to get over the line. https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/iluka-is-pressing-for-more-government-support-for-its-critical-rare-earths-project/news-story/670ad228f31982b97056b47126935b4d?amp&nk=12af2674160fc5974a42b11f4d90ac3f-1724270432 Bekommen die das Geld nicht zusammen, dann wäre Lynas weiter der einzige EX China Lieferant entsprechender Größe. Arafura hat auch noch keine FID bekanntgegeben.

Iluka looking for more taxpayer cash for REE refinery Big cost blow-out at refinery project sees mineral sands miner put its hand out for more https://www.mining-journal.com/miners/news-analysis/4348912/iluka-looking-taxpayer-cash-ree-refinery Das ist die Vermutung die man über Hot Copper lesen kann. Man ist sich aber nicht sicher. Könnten auch andere Dinge gewesen sein. Z.b. die Antimon Sache und die Angst es könnte weiter Seltene Erden treffen.