DOW JONES WKN: CG3AA2 ISIN: US2605661048 Forum: Indizes Thema: Hauptdiskussion

Allianz Global Insolvency Outlook 2023-25: From maul to ruck: Most countries are seeing double-digit rebounds in business insolvencies as excess cash dwindles, leaving the most vulnerable corporates caught between a rock and a hard place. Net cash positions are dropping faster than economic activity. In this context, 11 countries are already seeing a more than +30% increase in business insolvencies: the US and Canada in the Americas; the Netherlands, Sweden and France in Western Europe; Poland and Hungary in Eastern Europe and Japan, Australia, New Zealand and South Korea in Asia. https://www.allianz.com/content/dam/onemarketing/azcom/Allianz_com/economic-research/publications/specials/en/2023/october/2023-10-18_Global-Insovencies.pdf

Moody's: REIT refinancing risk will peak in 2026 as commercial real estate credit continues to tighten https://www.moodys.com/

Office and retail face another $15bn valuation hit https://www.australianpropertyjournal.com.au/2023/11/13/office-and-retail-face-another-15bn-valuation-hit/

The Clearest Sign Yet That Commercial Real Estate Is in Trouble. Lenders are issuing a record number of foreclosure notices related to risky property loans: Foreclosures are surging in an opaque and risky corner of commercial real-estate finance, offering one of the starkest signs yet that turmoil in the property market is worsening https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/the-clearest-sign-yet-that-commercial-real-estate-is-in-trouble-cb8dfafa

https://www.capital.de/geld-versicherungen/-die-mitte-einer-rezession-ist-der-beste-zeitpunkt--um-aktien-zu-kaufen--33961458.html

Rezession wird kommen 🚨

Für die vergangenen 170 Jahre gilt demnach: Wenn die Renditen kurzfristiger US-Bonds in einem Zeitraum von zwölf Monaten um 1,5 Prozentpunkte oder in 24 Monaten um 2,5 Prozentpunkte gestiegen N sind, dann trat in den folgenden 36 Monaten mit einer Wahrscheinlichkeit von gut 70 Prozent eine Rezession ein.

Could it Be the Fed’s Mega-QE Created so Much Liquidity that Tightening Doesn’t Work until this Excess Gets Burned Up? Financial Conditions loosen further: credit markets blow off the Fed https://wolfstreet.com/2023/11/10/could-it-be-that-the-feds-mega-qe-created-so-much-liquidity-that-tightening-doesnt-work-until-this-excess-liquidity-gets-burned-up/

Das große Beben: Die Staatsanleihen der USA gelten als die sicherste Finanzanlage. Doch immer mehr Investoren zweifeln an ihnen. Droht eine neue Wirtschaftskrise? https://www.zeit.de/2023/46/us-staatsanleihen-aktienmarkt-risiko-wirtschaftskrise

BlackRock cut its interest rate swaptions exposure by 46% in the second quarter of the year to $14 billion notional amid a wider retreat from the instrument by mutual funds and exchange-traded funds. https://www.risk.net/derivatives/7958214/blackrock-pimco-slash-mutual-fund-swaptions-books

Credit-Rating Downgrades Suggest Problems for the US Banking Sector Are Far from Over https://internationalbanker.com/banking/credit-rating-downgrades-suggest-problems-for-the-us-banking-sector-are-far-from-over/

Scope Ratings GmbH accepted as a new external credit assessment institution https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2023/html/ecb.pr231110~1509d7cb6b.en.html

Bank Loan Volumes Plunge Despite Huge Deposit Inflows, Fed Rescue Fund Usage Surges To New Record High https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bank-loan-volumes-plunge-despite-huge-deposit-inflows-fed-rescue-fund-usage-surges-new

Moody's analyst sees polarization around US budget issues persisting next year https://www.reuters.com/world/us/moodys-analyst-sees-polarization-around-us-budget-issues-persisting-next-year-2023-11-11/