DOW JONES WKN: CG3AA2 ISIN: US2605661048 Forum: Indizes Thema: Hauptdiskussion

Small developers suffer quietly in shadows of Evergrande, Country Garden. Shares of smaller developers like Yuzhou and Aoyuan have plunged this year under similar, if not bigger, liquidity pressures to those faced by giants like Evergrande and Country Garden. Moody’s downgraded its outlook for China’s entire property sector to ‘negative’ last month. https://thebambooworks.com/small-developers-suffer-quietly-in-shadows-of-evergrande-country-garden/

IMF Outlook: China and EU’s vulnerability in global economy for 2024: According to the latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), China and the EU are identified as the weak points in the global economy for 2024 https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2023/10/11/imf-outlook-china-and-eus-vulnerability-in-global-economy-for-2024/

REITs mehr tot als lebendig https://www.reit.com/sites/default/files/2023-10/2023_10_HistoricalOfferings.pdf

October 2023 Credit Outook - Major Risk to Shadow Banking Sector: Commercial real estate woes are a continuing problem for corporate owners, financial lenders and fund investors; this sector is the likely source of any further problems in second line and shadow bank sub-sectors. Property is also at the core of problems in the Chinese financial system; with likely contagion into the real economy, as well as some risk to international property values if Chinese real estate investors try to raise liquidity from overseas markets. https://www.creditbenchmark.com/october-2023-credit-outlook/#TMs

Inflation could come roaring back 1970s-style. Here are 4 reasons why markets should be concerned, according to Deutsche Bank. There are signs that investors should be concerned inflation makes a comeback and takes a path similar to the 1970s, and that means the Federal Reserve can't afford to declare victory just yet, according Deutsche Bank. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/inflation-us-economic-outlook-fed-interest-rates-stagflation-recession-deutsche-2023-10

US credit downgrade means junk sovereign bonds now outweigh AAA debt for the first time, Fitch says https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/junk-sovereign-bonds-aaa-debt-us-credit-downgrade-fitch-ratings-2023-10

Wall Street traders have taken on the biggest short position in US stocks on record. Trend-following CTAs are short $47 billion of US equities, according to data from Goldman Sachs. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/most-bearish-bet-against-stocks-ever-record-wall-street-cta-2023-10

Mit der katastrophalen Schuldenmacherei-Fiskalpolitik der US Regierung ist der weitere Renditeanstieg bereits vorprogrammiert. Um das Haushaltdefizit von voraussichtlich 1,6 Billionen US-Dollar auszugleichen, muss das Bruttoangebot an Staatsanleihen um rund 700 Milliarden US-Dollar in 10-jährigen Anleiheäquivalenten auf über 3 Billionen US-Dollar steigen. Das ist eine riesige Welle von Staatsanleihemissionen, die der Markt da in kurzer Zeit auffangen muss. Diese Flut an neuen Staatsanleihen, steigender Zinsprämie und der Preisgestaltung höherer Endzinsen wird die Renditen immer weiter in die Höhe treiben. Gleichzeitig nimmt die weltweite Liquidität jetzt ab während viele Unternehmen bereits vor einer extrem hohen Schuldenmauer stehen und in den nächsten Jahren ihre Schulden verlängern müssen. Damit ist eine Insolvenzwelle auch breits abzusehen. Das wird keine weiche Landung, sondern eine verdammt harte und vermtulich sogar eine Bruchlandung.

You know it when you see it: US (tech) stocks vs. global stocks https://matttopley.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-54.png

woohoo! National Debt Increases By Another Half-Trillion In Just 20 Days. $33,513,382,512,663.51 and lift off ... https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-penny

ECB Steps Up Scrutiny of Banks’ Commercial Real Estate Loans: concerns grow that banks in the region have been too slow to mark down the value of their commercial real estate loans. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/banking-law/ecb-steps-up-scrutiny-of-banks-commercial-real-estate-loans-1

October 2023 Credit Outlook - Global Default Risk Rising: Commercial real estate woes are a continuing problem for corporate owners, financial lenders and fund investors; this sector is the likely source of any further problems in second line and shadow bank sub-sectors. Property is also at the core of problems in the Chinese financial system; with likely contagion into the real economy, as well as some risk to international property values if Chinese real estate investors try to raise liquidity from overseas markets. https://www.creditbenchmark.com/october-2023-credit-outlook/

Trend hedge funds come out winners in bond market rout. They stand out as winners from the latest bond selloff, with bond yields from the United States to Germany this week hitting multi-year highs as concern about elevated interest rates and high debt levels took hold, derailing stock markets in turn. https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/trend-hedge-funds-come-out-winners-in-bond-market-rout/

US Sovereign-Rating Downgrade Exposes Significant Debt, Fiscal and Governance Vulnerabilities https://internationalbanker.com/banking/us-sovereign-rating-downgrade-exposes-significant-debt-fiscal-and-governance-vulnerabilities/

Scope rating Euro area: inverted yield curve, rising yields test governments’ debt management, fiscal reforms. An extended period of higher euro area interest rates is testing governments’ debt management as financing costs rise, adding urgency to the need for fiscal reforms to create space for higher social spending and green investment. https://scoperatings.com/ratings-and-research/research/EN/175378

A rescue package for the troubled UK challenger bank includes issuing new bail-in debt at a significantly higher yield, and selling existing mortgage portfolios to free up risk-weighted assets. This will eat into net interest margins at a time when deposit rates are also rising, so the bank’s plan to build up specialist mortgages and commercial lending will need to be realised quickly to avoid tipping Metro back into an operating loss. https://www.risk.net/risk-management/7957938/metro-bank-bets-the-house-on-lending-pivot