DOW JONES WKN: CG3AA2 ISIN: US2605661048 Forum: Indizes Thema: Hauptdiskussion

Goldman's trading desk noted that for the first time all year, it feels like the market is starting to question the strong growth narrative on the back of weaker earnings this AM: ASML -8% spilling into all Semis; JBHT a bellwether transport -7.5% and KNX -3.5% cut their forecast; Industrial REITs (GSSIREID) -3.2% on back of a neg print in the space. Beige Book Reveals Economy In Far Worse Shape Than White House Claims https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/beige-book-reveals-economy-far-worse-shape-white-house-claims

Apollo: Rising US government debt: What to watch? Treasury auctions, rating agencies, and the term premium https://www.apolloacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/OutlookForDemandForTreasuries-041224_v3.pdf

The U.S. Reaches $33.2 Billion In Defaulted Debt In First-Quarter 2024. Although Europe has seen elevated defaults in first-quarter 2024, the amount of debt issuers have defaulted on remains low at US$1.5 billion. However, Europe is the only region in which year-to-date defaults are above the 2023 year-to-date tally. Defaults in the region remain at their highest, year-to-date, since 2008. https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/240416-default-transition-and-recovery-global-defaults-are-still-high-despite-dipping-in-march-13075186

Laut Moody’s liegt die US-Büroleerstandsquote bei nahezu 20 % und stellt damit einen neuen Rekord auf https://cre.moodysanalytics.com/insights/cre-news/the-cre-digest-april-15-2024/

Take shelter - Moody's "Not Another Inflation Crush" https://cre.moodysanalytics.com/insights/cre-news/not-another-inflation-crush/

Hot inflation may put Fed rate cut in thick of election season: “We do not think the Fed will gain the confidence it needs to start cutting rates until December,” Bank of America economists wrote, meaning Biden would be campaigning against the stigma of both higher borrowing costs and persistent inflation. https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/hot-inflation-may-put-fed-rate-cut-in-thick-of-election-season/

What the fresh march higher in oil means for world markets: Oil prices are up around 16% so far this year...Investors are paying attention. After all, it was an energy price surge two years ago that helped drive inflation and interest rates higher on a scale not seen in decades...After U.S. inflation came in higher than expected for a third straight month in March, the spectre of inflation staying higher has returned with bets on interest rate cuts scaled back sharply. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/what-fresh-march-higher-oil-means-world-markets-2024-04-17/

Big Tech Is Downsizing Workspace in Another Blow to Office Real Estate: Big technology companies are cutting back on office space https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial/big-tech-is-downsizing-work-space-in-another-blow-to-office-real-estate-67b4685c

Smaller US banks hold over half of CRE loans Lenders under $50bn in assets reported record $1.7 trillion of exposures: More than half of commercial real estate (CRE) loans reported in the US is held by banks with less than $50 billion in assets, Risk Quantum analysis of regulatory filings shows. https://www.risk.net/risk-quantum/7959239/smaller-us-banks-hold-over-half-of-cre-loans

Commercial Real Estate: When Maturity Means Default: Nearly $1.2 trillion of commercial mortgage loans will mature in 2024–2025. Office loans make up over 17 percent of those maturities, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. With few lenders making new office loans, we anticipate that the existing mortgage lenders will be forced to either extend maturity or declare the loans in default. https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/perspectives/sector-views/commercial-real-estate-when-maturity-means-default

Vol Genie Is Out Of The Bottle: Equity, fixed-income, credit, commodity and even FX volatility are beginning to rise in unison https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/vol-genie-out-bottle-geopolitical-tensions-or-not

Alles Positive längst eingepreist - JP Morgan warnt. US-Aktien: Zinsen und Bewertungen zu hoch https://finanzmarktwelt.de/us-aktien-zinsen-und-bewertungen-zu-hoch-warnt-jp-morgan-307303/

Weniger als die Hälfte der US-Banken ist bereit, im Notfall Kredite von der Fed aufzunehmen. Und das, obwohl die Finanzaufsichtsbehörden immer wieder Forderungen an die Banken richten, sicherzustellen, dass sie bei Problemen schnell auf das Notfallgeld der Fed zugreifen können. https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/less-than-half-of-u-s-banks-ready-to-borrow-from-fed-in-emergency/

Hallo Community, es ist Sonntag, der 14. April 2024 und wieder Zeit für die wöchentliche Analyse. Rückblick: Der Dow Jones entschied sich am Mittwoch mit der höher als erwarteten US-Verbraucherpreisen für den Weg nach Süden. Wie wir letzte Woche schrieben, sollte der Weg bis 38.000 frei werden, wenn der Dow das Vorwochenhoch 38.559 unterschreitet. Das geschah am Mittwoch. Am Freitag folgten die 38.000 (Tief bei 37.877), wo der Index auch etwa die ... mehr unter https://www.apunkt.de/chartanalyse-dj/dow-jones-aktuell/

Heute geht's dann wieder ein bisschen nach oben

OK daher das rot gerade