DOW JONES WKN: CG3AA2 ISIN: US2605661048 Forum: Indizes Thema: Hauptdiskussion

US budget deficit jumps to $367 billion in November on calendar payment shifts. The U.S. government posted a $367 billion budget deficit for November, up 17% from a year earlier https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-budget-deficit-jumps-367-billion-november-calendar-payment-shifts-2024-12-11/

CBO Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034: In CBO’s projections, the deficit totals nearly $2 trillion this year. Large deficits push federal debt held by the public to 122 percent of GDP in 2034. Economic growth slows to 2.0 percent in 2024 and 1.8 percent in 2026 and later years. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60419

"Giving money and power to government is like giving whiskey and car keys to teenage boys." - P.J. O’Rourke - December 12 at 2 p.m. EST, CBO Report: Options for Reducing the Deficit: 2025 to 2034 https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#4

Goldman chalks up highest VAR breach since pandemic: Goldman Sachs recorded two value-at-risk breaches in the third quarter, including a loss equivalent to 258% of its modelled estimate – the most since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. This was five times the largest daily loss-to-VAR ratio recorded by the bank in the previous three months, and only slightly below the record 266% set in Q1 2020. https://www.risk.net/risk-quantum/7960483/goldman-chalks-up-highest-var-breach-since-pandemic

Industrie-Rezession: Deutsche Bank will Kreditrisiken loswerden. Auslagerung von Ausfallrisiken an Investoren https://finanzmarktwelt.de/industrie-rezession-deutsche-bank-will-kreditrisiken-loswerden-332510/

‘The mother of all bubbles’ in the U.S. is sucking money away from the rest of the world. U.S. companies now account for 70% of the leading global stock index, up from 30% in the 1980s, while the U.S. economy's share of global GDP is just 27%. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mother-bubbles-us-sucking-money-215345592.html

Immobilien: Wie sich Versorgungswerke und Pensionskassen verzockt haben Institutionelle Investoren aus Deutschland haben in den Boom-Jahren Milliarden in riskante Immobilienfinanzierungen gesteckt https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/immobilien/immobilien-wie-sich-versorgungswerke-und-pensionskassen-verzockt-haben-02/100090898.html

Fannie Mae has blacklisted at least 2 more mortgage brokerages

Börsencrash wie 1929? Großanleger reduziert Aktien, flüchtet in Cash https://www.institutional-money.com/news/maerkte/headline/boersencrash-wie-1929-grossanleger-reduziert-aktien-fluechtet-in-cash-237677

CMBS Loan Loss Report: Volume of Loan Losses Increases in November 2024. average loss severity of 56.67% for the month https://www.trepp.com/trepptalk/cmbs-loan-loss-report-volume-of-loan-losses-increases-in-nov-2024

Fitch: Uptick of U.S CMBS Delinquencies in November; Office Defaults Climb Higher https://www.fitchratings.com/research/structured-finance/uptick-of-us-cmbs-delinquencies-in-november-office-defaults-climb-higher-06-12-2024

CRED iQ's Overall Distress Rate Reaches Double Digits: Office Distress Rate Climbs 70 Basis Points to 15.5% in November https://cred-iq.com/blog/2024/12/06/cred-iqs-overall-distress-rate-reaches-double-digits/

CMBS Delinquency Rate Soars: The office delinquency rate surpassed 10% in November, increasing about 100 basis points to 10.38%. https://www.trepp.com/trepptalk/cmbs-delinquency-rate-soars-over-6-percent-driven-office-multifamily-office-nov-24

The Commercial Mortgage Crisis Deepens: The delinquency rate for commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) tied to office properties reached 10.4 percent in November 2024, approaching the 10.7 percent peak reached during the 2008 financial crisis. https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/the-commercial-mortgage-crisis-deepens/

Maday, maday vom Delta One desk. "We Are Approaching Levels Without Precedent" https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-derivatives-desk-we-are-approaching-levels-without-precedent