DOW JONES WKN: CG3AA2 ISIN: US2605661048 Forum: Indizes Thema: Hauptdiskussion

Report: Rate cuts will make or break half of cmbs borrowers: Gaming out whether the Fed will save distressed CMBS: Worst-case scenario: refi fail rate of 35%. https://therealdeal.com/national/2024/08/20/rate-cuts-will-make-or-break-half-of-cmbs-borrowers-report/

ING Analysis: Federal Reserve scenarios: more twists and turns to come. As the market currently sees the situation, the Fed will deliver 100bp of cuts this year and the Fed funds gets to a “neutral” level of 3-3.25% by mid-2025. The potential path for the Fed funds rate under different scenarios.. https://think.ing.com/articles/federal-reserve-scenarios-more-twists-and-turns-to-come/#a5

Who Wins And Who Loses When The Housing Bubble Pops? This time around, the Fed may not be able to "save" the bubble from a complete round-trip deflation, which history suggests might decline by 50%. https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/who-wins-and-who-loses-when-housing-bubble-pops

„Wir sehen, dass die Büros in New York, Chicago und San Francisco im Laufe der Zeit von der ursprünglichen Bewertung bis zur Neubewertung um 70 % sinken. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/1-million-square-foot-office-building-center-city-philly-appraised-25-less-2021

U.S. houshold allocations are near record highs! Elevated exposure tends to precede lower future equity returns https://www.isabelnet.com/u-s-household-equity-allocation/

Private valuations of distressed SF commercial properties plunge: While some San Francisco buildings have recently sold at fire-sale prices, private valuations of numerous other distressed properties in The City have plunged, according to real-estate market experts. https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/business/stressed-sf-commercial-property-valuations-plunge-post-covid/article_a6c62592-5c06-11ef-97dd-2b79304c9eca.html

The Sahm rule has triggered: The Sahm rule recession indicator: we’ve reached cruising altitude. Markets, please prepare for landing. Please fasten your seatbelts, there may be a healthy amount of turbulence in the months to come. https://bondvigilantes.com/blog/2024/08/the-sahm-rule-has-triggered-markets-please-prepare-for-landing/

Real-time Sahm Indikator zeigt Rezession https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/series?seid=SAHMREALTIME&utm_source=series_page&utm_medium=related_content&utm_term=related_resources&utm_campaign=alfred

US Jobs Revised Down By 818,000 In Election Year Shocker, Second Worst Revision In US History. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-jobs-revised-down-818000-election-year-shocker-second-worst-revision-us-history

818.000 Stellen existieren gar nicht - Größte Abwärtsrevision der Jobs seit Finanzkrise. Laut den am Mittwoch veröffentlichten Regierungsdaten (die mit deutlicher Verspätung gemeldet wurden) war das Beschäftigungswachstum in den USA im vergangenen Jahr bis März wahrscheinlich weit weniger stark als zuvor gemeldet. https://finanzmarktwelt.de/fed-zinsen-groesste-abwaertsrevision-der-jobs-seit-finanzkrise-319771/ Größte Abwärtskorrektur seit 2009...

UBS to Liquidate CRE Fund after Investors Stampede For Exits

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/VIX:INDEXCBOE

UBS to liquidate $2 bln real estate fund as office downturn bites. Commercial real estate finance company Blackstone Mortgage Trust in July slashed its dividend, while the Starwood Real Estate Income Trust (SREIT) in May temporarily limited share redemptions to avoid forced sales of its holdings. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/UBS-GROUP-AG-19156942/news/UBS-to-liquidate-2-bln-real-estate-fund-as-office-downturn-bites-47663057/

Commercial real estate’s office sector: An accelerating fire. While steeply rising interest rates and falling property valuations have sparked flames in the broad commercial real estate market, problems in the office sector are fueling an inferno. https://www.franklintempleton.com/articles/2024/alternatives/commercial-real-estate-office-sector-accelerating-fire