DOW JONES WKN: CG3AA2 ISIN: US2605661048 Forum: Indizes Thema: Hauptdiskussion

Suprise, surprise! Nein, das ist wirklich keine große Überraschung: Goldman Sachs Economic Suprise Index https://www.isabelnet.com/u-s-economic-suprise-index/

Fed Fund Rates Expectations: even less cuts than FED dot plot in 2024 https://www.isabelnet.com/fed-funds-rate-expectations/

ECB’s Nagel Says Structural Forces Could Keep Inflation Higher: “A range of potential factors could lead to higher inflationary pressure in the future” https://globalinsolvency.com/headlines/ecbs-nagel-says-structural-forces-could-keep-inflation-higher

UK Economist Says "Entering A New Dark Age": 'One Or Two' Bank Failures A Week https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/watch-billionaire-real-estate-investor-expects-one-or-two-bank-failures-week-uk-economist

Arbor Realty Trust is a national direct lender that provides debt capital for the multifamily loan and commercial real estate industries. Viceroy Research Report: Viceroy’s investigations have discovered an elaborate and intentional con, where Arbor has financed purchases of assets from its own foreclosures, with Arbor loans, via off-balance sheet entities run by former Arbor associates, and entirely financed with Arbor equity capital. https://viceroyresearch.org/2024/05/09/arbor-realty-trust-fraud/

whoo! All-in and more: Margin Debt up to moon! https://en.macromicro.me/charts/415/us-margin-debt

JPMorgan warnt vor übertriebenen Erwartungen an S&P 500-EPS im Jahr 2024. Ihre Schlussfolgerungen sind deutlich: Ein nominelles BIP-Wachstum von 13 % wäre erforderlich, um Schritt zu halten mit einem Umsatzwachstum des S&P 500 von 17 % https://de.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/jpmorgan-warnt-vor-ubertriebenen-erwartungen-an-sp-500eps-im-jahr-2024-2614039

„Die Rolle der Schiffstransportkosten als Treiber der globalen Inflation wird unterschätzt. Schocks bei den Transportkosten können Zentralbanken, die mit der Gewährleistung der Preisstabilität beauftragt sind, auf bevorstehende Gefahren aufmerksam machen und ihnen helfen, sie zu reduzieren das Risiko, erneut ins Hintertreffen zu geraten.“ https://www.tbsnews.net/bloomberg-special/shipping-cost-drop-smoking-gun-foretelling-inflation-cool-573806

More than a tenth of all US commercial banks meet concentration thresholds in commercial real estate (CRE). US supervisors face operational challenge with constellation of 536 lenders above risk benchmarks https://www.risk.net/risk-quantum/7959332/one-tenth-of-us-banks-exceed-cre-concentration-thresholds

Hoped-for US rate cuts morph into fear of another hike https://epfr.com/insights/global-navigator/hoped-for-us-rate-cuts-morph-into-fear-of-another-hike-equity-fund-flows-money-market-fund-flows-bond-flows-esg-fund-flows-financial-markets-data-investor-sentiment/

US-Regionalbanken in schwerem Unwetter: Amerikas kleine und mittelgroße Geldhäuser leiden auch ein Jahr nach dem Kollaps der First Republic Bank unter hohen Zinsniveaus. Durch die Gewerbeimmobilienkrise rollen noch erhebliche Belastungen auf den Sektor zu. https://www.boersen-zeitung.de/meinung-analyse/us-regionalbanken-in-schwerem-unwetter

Die Zahlungsausfälle bei CMBS-Bürokrediten mit variablem Zinssatz erreichen 20 % https://wolfstreet.com/2024/05/02/delinquencies-of-floating-rate-office-cmbs-loans-hit-20-fixed-rate-loans-are-at-4-7/

Stagflation Signals Soar as Manufacturing Surveys Show Skyrocketing Prices https://oilprice.com/Finance/the-Economy/Stagflation-Signals-Soar-as-Manufacturing-Surveys-Show-Skyrocketing-Prices.html

Government borrowing costs across developed economies saw their biggest jumps in months in April, evidence that bond markets are not yet out of the woods when it comes to inflation and the threat of higher-for-longer than expected interest rates. https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/inflation-hasnt-lost-its-grip-on-bond-markets-yet/

Fed Holds Rates at 5.50% Top of Range, QT Slowdown Starts in June, Acknowledged Inflation is a Problem Again. New language: “In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective.” https://wolfstreet.com/2024/05/01/fed-holds-rates-at-5-50-top-of-range-qt-slowdown-starts-in-june-acknowledged-inflation-is-a-problem-again/