FREYR BATTERY WKN: A3CT9J ISIN: LU2360697374 Kürzel: FREY Forum: Aktien User: Mountainclimber

Das freut mich ☺️

Haben doch nen stabilen Boden. Das ist alles ganz normal. Wichtig war der Sprung auf dieses Niveau u. das Volumen, mit dem dies Aktie bei solchen breaking news gehandelt wird. Die Aktie lebt.

Gewinn von gestern zumindest schon wieder abverkauft, -8% 🤔

"(...) Bei Meyer Burger läuft das Geschäft seit längerem schlecht. Grund ist die Konkurrenz aus China. Meyer Burger hatte jahrelang Technologie zur Produktion von Solarmodulen nach China verkauft. Inzwischen ist China immer weniger darauf angewiesen. Nicht nur die Maschinen, sondern auch die Solarmodule sind nicht mehr konkurrenzfähig. (...)"

https://www.nzz.ch/wirtschaft/der-solarmodulproduzent-meyer-burger-erhaelt-ein-kuendigungsschreiben-von-seinem-groessten-kunden-ld.1857673

Freie Kapazitäten hat Freyr ja noch..😁

Bin mal gespannt ob sich der Kurs zum Woende hält oder wieder zambricht. Ich drück uns die Daumen ;-)

Das wär schön. Am besten bei einem welcher mit F anfängt und mit reyr endet😀

Wenn Desri den Rahmenvertrag mit Meyer Burger kündigt, bei wem beziehen sie ihre Solarmodule dann zukünftig? Vielleicht bei einem amerikanischen Anbieter?

Sorgen machen mir tatsächlich evtl. massive Zölle auf Vorprodukte. Vielleicht können Sie ja bis zum 20. Januar noch schnell die Lager voll machen? Und viel mehr interessiert mich, ob evtl. eine DoE-Finanzierung der Solarzellen-Fabrik angestrebt wird u. diese. Möglichkeit für Freyr dann noch besteht.

Ich mein - das ist Reuters! Und falls die IRA Incentives bleiben, dann sind wir mit einem "amerikanischen" Produkt im Range des Weltmarktes. Die Zölle würden zumindest Vorteile im inländischen US-Absatzmarkt bringen.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-return-will-slow-not-stop-us-clean-energy-boom-2024-11-06/

Viel wichtiger: Hast Du den Link zum Reuters Artikel?

"(...) Es ist unwahrscheinlich, dass FREYR aus der Veräußerung seiner nicht-strategischen europäischen Vermögenswerte einen Wert erzielen wird. Angesichts des Standorts seiner mitteleuropäischen Anlagen, des fehlenden Zugangs zu erneuerbaren Energien und der Unbeliebtheit von Rechenzentren in den lokalen Gemeinschaften wird FREYR erhebliche Hürden überwinden müssen, um hier einen Wert zu erzielen. (...)". Das ist pure Spekulation vom Autor. Ich persönlich halte es für wahrscheinlich, dass Freyr die Vermögenswerte für eben die $ 45 Mio. ($50 Mio.) veräußert bekommt bzw. umgewidmet bekommt. Das hatte Jeff ja auch schon angedeutet. Jeff hatte ja auch angedeutet, dass es nicht unbedingt nur um Veräußerungen geht.

Conclusion While FREYR has left an industry where it could not succeed and entered a relatively more mature sector with actual production in its assets, it is still looking to establish itself as a reliable player successfully. Its new management team brings relevant experience to help it achieve that. FREYR is unlikely to realize value from the disposal of its non-strategic European assets. Given its central European asset's location, lack of access to renewable energy, and the unpopularity of data centers in local communities, FREYR will have to clear significant hurdles to realize value here. Adding uncertainty to the incoming administration's policies and the glut in solar production equipment, FREYR's pivot to solar energy looks like a prospect to approach cautiously. I will watch from afar.

Guidance for 2025 FREYR expects to achieve an EBITDA run-rate of $175-$225 million by the end of 2025, reflecting its Wilmer facility ramping up throughout 2025. Forward guidance Forward guidance (Strategic pivot announcement, p.7 (FREYR IR) As per the announcement, 30 percent of production is backed by firm contracts. The success of this guidance depends on the company's ability to secure new business and ramp up production within the next year. Disposal of European Assets Not Likely to Add Value FREYR's European assets include: The CQP, a small customer qualification plant in Mo i Rana, Norway "Giga Arctic," a partly completed production facility, also in Mo i Rana, Norway Land in Vaasa, Finland, for a potential production facility for cathode active materials (CAM) Consider FREYR's PP&E as of Q3, 2024: PP&E as of Q3, 2024 PP&E as of Q3, 2024 (SEC filing) Most of its value is tied to the partly built Giga Arctic, now an empty shell. "Land" would also include its Coweta County, Georgia, area, initially planned for a "Giga America" battery cell factory. In a Nov 13 interview with a local daily, the FREYR Europe chief talked about its plans for its Norwegian assets. FREYR plans to use its CQP as a battery module manufacturing facility and convert its Giga Arctic building into a "more sustainable data center," using batteries as backup power instead of diesel generators. This plan sounds good, in theory. However, as confirmed in the interview, the facility does not have access to the required power. Renewable power is in high demand, as is Norway, and the country expects a power deficit in the next few years. Also, the proposed backup solution hinges on access to that renewable power. The Trina deal also has a covenant (SEC filing, p.3) requiring FREYR to dispose of its European assets within 6 months for at least $45 million. If FREYR cannot sell its assets before six months, it will be liable to pay $2 million for each calendar month passing. Outlook for Solar The near-continuous drop in solar power prices has been well-publicized for a long time. According to that source, world prices reached $0.31/W in 2023, a roughly 10 percent drop since 2020. This is about the unit price FREYR guides for 2025 ($0.30-$0.32). An essential part of FREYR's business case is its ability "to maximize IRA tax credits," as shown on this slide: IRA incentive capture IRA incentive capture (Trina announcement, p. 10) To say that the incoming Administration does not favor renewable energy would be an understatement. Nevertheless, this Reuters article thinks the Trump presidency is unlikely to dismantle or repeal the IRA, as red states and his backers also benefit from it. However, there are still levers the Administration may pull to limit the scope of the IRA. The possibility of a trade war must also be considered. Of course, it remains to be seen what the incoming Administration will prioritize, but in any case, the prospect of tariffs is looming. While tariffs, in theory, could help a domestic producer of solar panels, they could also threaten the price of its inputs, increasing costs and lowering solar's attractiveness. Valuation FREYR stock more than doubled on the news after hovering around $1/sh for some time: FREYR stock price FREYR stock price (SA quote pages) A market cap of $300 million implies it is trading at a discount to its book value, which this author thinks is fair, given the analysis above. It also means a forward EV/EBITDA of about 3. Compare that to its two listed peers, First Solar and Canadian Solar, which trade at multiples of 9 and 8, respectively: Chart Data by YCharts FREYR is cheap compared to these two. Cheap, however, only sometimes means good.