FREYR BATTERY WKN: A3CT9J ISIN: LU2360697374 Kürzel: FREY Forum: Aktien User: Mountainclimber

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-return-will-slow-not-stop-us-clean-energy-boom-2024-11-06/

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"(...) Es ist unwahrscheinlich, dass FREYR aus der Veräußerung seiner nicht-strategischen europäischen Vermögenswerte einen Wert erzielen wird. Angesichts des Standorts seiner mitteleuropäischen Anlagen, des fehlenden Zugangs zu erneuerbaren Energien und der Unbeliebtheit von Rechenzentren in den lokalen Gemeinschaften wird FREYR erhebliche Hürden überwinden müssen, um hier einen Wert zu erzielen. (...)". Das ist pure Spekulation vom Autor. Ich persönlich halte es für wahrscheinlich, dass Freyr die Vermögenswerte für eben die $ 45 Mio. ($50 Mio.) veräußert bekommt bzw. umgewidmet bekommt. Das hatte Jeff ja auch schon angedeutet. Jeff hatte ja auch angedeutet, dass es nicht unbedingt nur um Veräußerungen geht.

Conclusion While FREYR has left an industry where it could not succeed and entered a relatively more mature sector with actual production in its assets, it is still looking to establish itself as a reliable player successfully. Its new management team brings relevant experience to help it achieve that. FREYR is unlikely to realize value from the disposal of its non-strategic European assets. Given its central European asset's location, lack of access to renewable energy, and the unpopularity of data centers in local communities, FREYR will have to clear significant hurdles to realize value here. Adding uncertainty to the incoming administration's policies and the glut in solar production equipment, FREYR's pivot to solar energy looks like a prospect to approach cautiously. I will watch from afar.

Guidance for 2025 FREYR expects to achieve an EBITDA run-rate of $175-$225 million by the end of 2025, reflecting its Wilmer facility ramping up throughout 2025. Forward guidance Forward guidance (Strategic pivot announcement, p.7 (FREYR IR) As per the announcement, 30 percent of production is backed by firm contracts. The success of this guidance depends on the company's ability to secure new business and ramp up production within the next year. Disposal of European Assets Not Likely to Add Value FREYR's European assets include: The CQP, a small customer qualification plant in Mo i Rana, Norway "Giga Arctic," a partly completed production facility, also in Mo i Rana, Norway Land in Vaasa, Finland, for a potential production facility for cathode active materials (CAM) Consider FREYR's PP&E as of Q3, 2024: PP&E as of Q3, 2024 PP&E as of Q3, 2024 (SEC filing) Most of its value is tied to the partly built Giga Arctic, now an empty shell. "Land" would also include its Coweta County, Georgia, area, initially planned for a "Giga America" battery cell factory. In a Nov 13 interview with a local daily, the FREYR Europe chief talked about its plans for its Norwegian assets. FREYR plans to use its CQP as a battery module manufacturing facility and convert its Giga Arctic building into a "more sustainable data center," using batteries as backup power instead of diesel generators. This plan sounds good, in theory. However, as confirmed in the interview, the facility does not have access to the required power. Renewable power is in high demand, as is Norway, and the country expects a power deficit in the next few years. Also, the proposed backup solution hinges on access to that renewable power. The Trina deal also has a covenant (SEC filing, p.3) requiring FREYR to dispose of its European assets within 6 months for at least $45 million. If FREYR cannot sell its assets before six months, it will be liable to pay $2 million for each calendar month passing. Outlook for Solar The near-continuous drop in solar power prices has been well-publicized for a long time. According to that source, world prices reached $0.31/W in 2023, a roughly 10 percent drop since 2020. This is about the unit price FREYR guides for 2025 ($0.30-$0.32). An essential part of FREYR's business case is its ability "to maximize IRA tax credits," as shown on this slide: IRA incentive capture IRA incentive capture (Trina announcement, p. 10) To say that the incoming Administration does not favor renewable energy would be an understatement. Nevertheless, this Reuters article thinks the Trump presidency is unlikely to dismantle or repeal the IRA, as red states and his backers also benefit from it. However, there are still levers the Administration may pull to limit the scope of the IRA. The possibility of a trade war must also be considered. Of course, it remains to be seen what the incoming Administration will prioritize, but in any case, the prospect of tariffs is looming. While tariffs, in theory, could help a domestic producer of solar panels, they could also threaten the price of its inputs, increasing costs and lowering solar's attractiveness. Valuation FREYR stock more than doubled on the news after hovering around $1/sh for some time: FREYR stock price FREYR stock price (SA quote pages) A market cap of $300 million implies it is trading at a discount to its book value, which this author thinks is fair, given the analysis above. It also means a forward EV/EBITDA of about 3. Compare that to its two listed peers, First Solar and Canadian Solar, which trade at multiples of 9 and 8, respectively: Chart Data by YCharts FREYR is cheap compared to these two. Cheap, however, only sometimes means good.

Company Overview FREYR is a US-headquartered battery storage manufacturer-turned-solar-manufacturer. Initially, FREYR Battery was created in 2021 to produce battery cells for the energy storage market. Armed with government subsidies equivalent to about $18 million and export finance guarantees of about $360 million, it sought to build a new production facility in Norway, utilizing renewable hydro energy and the 24M manufacturing technology. Its goal was to prove the technology in a customer qualification facility in Norway. However, before it could do that, the passing of the Inflation Reduction Act dramatically altered its European prospects, as the EU and its then-focus area, Norway, did not offer similar incentives. This prompted the company to move its headquarters to the U.S. in late 2023. A bumpy 2024 followed, culminating in announcing a downsizing of its workforce in August and admitting that it could not compete with Chinese producers. "We cannot produce batteries profitably under current market prices," then-CEO Tom Einar Jensen told Norwegian daily DN. The article also cited production difficulties. It is a story similar to the Swedish Northvolt project, albeit on a smaller scale. Strategic Pivot to Solar On Nov 6, the company announced the acquisition of Trina Solar's assets, effectively remaking the company into a solar module producer. This transaction, along with its leadership changes, changes the company fundamentally: Its new strategy is to become a vertically integrated solar manufacturer, Its main asset will become the 5 GW solar module production plant in Wilmer, Texas, that started production on Nov 1, It expects to begin production on another 5 GW facility by 2026, It guides positive EBITDA for 2025 ($75-$125 million), Current chairman Daniel Barcelo assumes the CEO role, and ex-CEO Tom Einar Jensen has been given the task of "value optimizing" its European assets FREYR Battery exits battery cell production as it looks to "monetize" its European assets and has terminated its 24M license agreement The total consideration is $621 million, including a 9.9% stake in the new FREYR. Included in the consideration are $150 million in cash, a $150 million loan, and a convertible note (for 11.5% of FREYR stock): Transaction consideration Transaction consideration (Trina deal announcement, p. 6) FREYR expends virtually all of its cash (it had $180 million cash on hand in Q3) and assumes $428 million in debt as part of the deal. Given the current political climate (also pre-election) between the U.S. and China, it makes sense for a Chinese company like Trina to dispose of its direct U.S. assets. By becoming a significant owner in a U.S. company, it may be able to convert illiquid assets to (somewhat) liquid shares trading on a public exchange. As of September 30, 2024, FREYR had about 140 million shares outstanding. FREYR will issue about 45 million shares to Trina as part of the deal. In addition, Trina's co-founder, Ms. Chunyan Wu, purchased about 15 million shares in a private placement. After the agreement has been completed, about 30% of FREYR will be owned by Trina or key personnel.

Summary The acquisition of solar assets signifies a strategic shift towards renewable energy, enhancing long-term growth potential and sustainability for the company. The agreement to sell European assets for $50 million will provide liquidity and streamline operations, focusing on core markets. However, the global glut in solar panels does not seem to diminish in the coming years. The incoming administration's uncertainty about trade and renewables policies raises further questions about the viability of a small solar player such as FREYR. Investment Thesis FREYR Battery, Inc. (NYSE:FREY) recently announced a strategic pivot from producing battery cells to producing solar modules, having the ambition to become a vertically integrated company also producing solar cells in the U.S. It will achieve this by acquiring the U.S. assets of Chinese solar panel manufacturer Trina. It will dispose of its European battery cell manufacturing assets and plans. The market responded by doubling its share price from $1 to $2/sh. Trina will assume 20 percent ownership in FREYR (when all conditions are met). While FREYR is in much better shape after this deal, it faces a difficult market for its product and uncertainty regarding the incoming Administration's policy on renewables and trade. It guides a positive EBITDA for 2025, but can it succeed in scaling up production profitably? I think there are better options, and I will stay away.

https://www.blick.ch/wirtschaft/was-ist-mit-solarfirma-los-handel-mit-aktien-von-meyer-burger-gestoppt-auf-wunsch-der-firma-id20322911.html

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Hier auch nochmal eine Einordnung der aktuellen Zahlen, Marktkapitalisierung und Vergleich mit First Solar und Canadian Solar. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4737541-freyr-battery-strategic-solar-pivot-promising-bumpy-road-ahead

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